Characterization of Post-COVID-19 Definitions and Clinical Coding Practices: Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: Post-COVID-19 condition (colloquially known as "long COVID-19") characterized as postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 has no universal clinical case definition. Recent efforts have focused on understanding long COVID-19 symptoms, and electronic health record (EHR) data provide a unique resource for understanding this condition. The introduction of the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) code U09.9 for "Post COVID-19 condition, unspecified" to identify patients with long COVID-19 has provided a method of evaluating this condition in EHRs; however, the accuracy of this code is unclear. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to characterize the utility and accuracy of the U09.9 code across 3 health care systems-the Veterans Health Administration, the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, and the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center-against patients identified with long COVID-19 via a chart review by operationalizing the World Health Organization (WHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) definitions. METHODS: Patients who were COVID-19 positive with either a U07.1 ICD-10 code or positive polymerase chain reaction test within these health care systems were identified for chart review. Among this cohort, we sampled patients based on two approaches: (1) with a U09.9 code and (2) without a U09.9 code but with a new onset long COVID-19-related ICD-10 code, which allows us to assess the sensitivity of the U09.9 code. To operationalize the long COVID-19 definition based on health agency guidelines, symptoms were grouped into a "core" cluster of 11 commonly reported symptoms among patients with long COVID-19 and an extended cluster that captured all other symptoms by disease domain. Patients having ≥2 symptoms persisting for ≥60 days that were new onset after their COVID-19 infection, with ≥1 symptom in the core cluster, were labeled as having long COVID-19 per chart review. The code's performance was compared across 3 health care systems and across different time periods of the pandemic. RESULTS: Overall, 900 patient charts were reviewed across 3 health care systems. The prevalence of long COVID-19 among the cohort with the U09.9 ICD-10 code based on the operationalized WHO definition was between 23.2% and 62.4% across these health care systems. We also evaluated a less stringent version of the WHO definition and the CDC definition and observed an increase in the prevalence of long COVID-19 at all 3 health care systems. CONCLUSIONS: This is one of the first studies to evaluate the U09.9 code against a clinical case definition for long COVID-19, as well as the first to apply this definition to EHR data using a chart review approach on a nationwide cohort across multiple health care systems. This chart review approach can be implemented at other EHR systems to further evaluate the utility and performance of the U09.9 code.

Postoperative Opioid Prescribing via Rule-Based Guidelines Derived from In-Hospital Consumption: An Assessment of Efficacy Based on Postdischarge Opioid Use.

BACKGROUND: Many institutions have developed operation-specific guidelines for opioid prescribing. These guidelines rarely incorporate in-hospital opioid consumption, which is highly correlated with consumption. We compare outcomes of several patient-centered approaches to prescribing that are derived from in-hospital consumption, including several experimental, rule-based prescribing guidelines and our current institutional guideline. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a retrospective, cohort study of all adults undergoing surgery at a single-academic medical center. Several rule-based guidelines, derived from in-hospital consumption (quantity of opioids consumed within 24 hours of discharge), were used to specify the theoretical quantity of opioid prescribed on discharge. The efficacy of the experimental guidelines was compared with 3 references: an approximation of our institution's tailored prescribing guideline; prescribing all patients the typical quantity of opioids consumed for patients undergoing the same operation; and a representative rule-based, tiered framework. For each scenario, we calculated the penalized residual sum of squares (reflecting the composite deviation from actual patient consumption, with 15% penalty for overprescribing) and the proportion of opioids consumed relative to prescribed. RESULTS: A total of 1,048 patients met inclusion criteria. Mean (SD) and median (interquartile range [IQR]) quantity of opioids consumed within 24 hours of discharge were 11.2 (26.9) morphine milligram equivalents and 0 (0 to 15) morphine milligram equivalents. Median (IQR) postdischarge consumption was 16 (0 to 150) morphine milligram equivalents. Our institutional guideline and the previously validated rule-based guideline outperform alternate approaches, with median (IQR) differences in prescribed vs consumed opioids of 0 (-60 to 27.25) and 37.5 (-37.5 to 37.5), respectively, corresponding to penalized residual sum of squares of 39,817,602 and 38,336,895, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Rather than relying on fixed quantities for defined operations, rule-based guidelines offer a simple yet effective method for tailoring opioid prescribing to in-hospital consumption.

Mobilizing data during a crisis: Building rapid evidence pipelines using multi-institutional real world data.

The COVID-19 pandemic generated tremendous interest in using real world data (RWD). Many consortia across the public and private sectors formed in 2020 with the goal of rapidly producing high-quality evidence from RWD to guide medical decision-making, public health priorities, and more. Experiences were gathered from five large consortia on rapid multi-institutional evidence generation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Insights have been compiled across five dimensions: consortium composition, governance structure and alignment of priorities, data sharing, data analysis, and evidence dissemination. The purpose of this piece is to offer guidance on building large-scale multi-institutional RWD analysis pipelines for future public health issues. The composition of each consortium was largely influenced by existing collaborations. A central set of priorities for evidence generation guided each consortium, however different approaches to governance emerged. Challenges surrounding limited access to clinical data due to various contributors were overcome in unique ways. While all consortia used different methods to construct and analyze patient cohorts ranging from centralized to federated approaches, all proved effective for generating meaningful real-world evidence. Actionable recommendations for clinical practice and public health agencies were made from translating insights from consortium analyses. Each consortium was successful in rapidly answering questions about COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment despite all taking slightly different approaches to data sharing and analysis. Leveraging RWD, leveraged in a manner that applies scientific rigor and transparency, can complement higher-level evidence and serve as an important adjunct to clinical trials to quickly guide policy and critical care, especially for a pandemic response.

Evaluating capabilities of large language models: Performance of GPT-4 on surgical knowledge assessments.

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence has the potential to dramatically alter health care by enhancing how we diagnose and treat disease. One promising artificial intelligence model is ChatGPT, a general-purpose large language model trained by OpenAI. ChatGPT has shown human-level performance on several professional and academic benchmarks. We sought to evaluate its performance on surgical knowledge questions and assess the stability of this performance on repeat queries. METHODS: We evaluated the performance of ChatGPT-4 on questions from the Surgical Council on Resident Education question bank and a second commonly used surgical knowledge assessment, referred to as Data-B. Questions were entered in 2 formats: open-ended and multiple-choice. ChatGPT outputs were assessed for accuracy and insights by surgeon evaluators. We categorized reasons for model errors and the stability of performance on repeat queries. RESULTS: A total of 167 Surgical Council on Resident Education and 112 Data-B questions were presented to the ChatGPT interface. ChatGPT correctly answered 71.3% and 67.9% of multiple choice and 47.9% and 66.1% of open-ended questions for Surgical Council on Resident Education and Data-B, respectively. For both open-ended and multiple-choice questions, approximately two-thirds of ChatGPT responses contained nonobvious insights. Common reasons for incorrect responses included inaccurate information in a complex question (n = 16, 36.4%), inaccurate information in a fact-based question (n = 11, 25.0%), and accurate information with circumstantial discrepancy (n = 6, 13.6%). Upon repeat query, the answer selected by ChatGPT varied for 36.4% of questions answered incorrectly on the first query; the response accuracy changed for 6/16 (37.5%) questions. CONCLUSION: Consistent with findings in other academic and professional domains, we demonstrate near or above human-level performance of ChatGPT on surgical knowledge questions from 2 widely used question banks. ChatGPT performed better on multiple-choice than open-ended questions, prompting questions regarding its potential for clinical application. Unique to this study, we demonstrate inconsistency in ChatGPT responses on repeat queries. This finding warrants future consideration including efforts at training large language models to provide the safe and consistent responses required for clinical application. Despite near or above human-level performance on question banks and given these observations, it is unclear whether large language models such as ChatGPT are able to safely assist clinicians in providing care.

An Institutional Curriculum for Opioid Prescribing Education: Outcomes From 2017 to 2022.

INTRODUCTION: Prescription opioids, including those prescribed after surgery, have greatly contributed to the US opioid epidemic. Educating opioid prescribers is a crucial component of ensuring the safe use of opioids among surgical patients. METHODS: An annual opioid prescribing education curriculum was implemented among new surgical prescribers at our institution between 2017 and 2022. The curriculum includes a single 75-min session which is comprised of several components: pain medications (dosing, indications, and contraindications); patients at high risk for uncontrolled pain and/or opioid misuse or abuse; patient monitoring and care plans; and state and federal regulations. Participants were asked to complete an opioid knowledge assessment before and after the didactic session. RESULTS: Presession and postsession assessments were completed by 197 (89.6%) prescribers. Across the five studied years, the median presession score was 54.5%. This increased to 63.6% after completion of the curriculum, representing a median relative knowledge increase of 18.2%. The median relative improvement was greatest for preinterns and interns (18.2% for both groups); smaller improvements were observed for postgraduate year 2-5 residents (9.1%) and advanced practice providers (9.1%). On a scale of 1 to 10 (with 5 being comfortable), median (interquartile range) self-reported comfort in prescribing opioids increased from 3 (2-5) before education to 5 (4-6) after education (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Each year, the curriculum substantially improved provider knowledge of and comfort in opioid prescribing. Despite increased national awareness of the opioid epidemic and increasing institutional initiatives to improve opioid prescribing practices, there was a sustained knowledge and comfort gap among new surgical prescribers. The observed effects of our opioid education curriculum highlight the value of a simple and efficient educational initiative.

Analyzing Surgical Technique in Diverse Open Surgical Videos With Multitask Machine Learning.

Objective: To overcome limitations of open surgery artificial intelligence (AI) models by curating the largest collection of annotated videos and to leverage this AI-ready data set to develop a generalizable multitask AI model capable of real-time understanding of clinically significant surgical behaviors in prospectively collected real-world surgical videos. Design, Setting, and Participants: The study team programmatically queried open surgery procedures on YouTube and manually annotated selected videos to create the AI-ready data set used to train a multitask AI model for 2 proof-of-concept studies, one generating surgical signatures that define the patterns of a given procedure and the other identifying kinematics of hand motion that correlate with surgeon skill level and experience. The Annotated Videos of Open Surgery (AVOS) data set includes 1997 videos from 23 open-surgical procedure types uploaded to YouTube from 50 countries over the last 15 years. Prospectively recorded surgical videos were collected from a single tertiary care academic medical center. Deidentified videos were recorded of surgeons performing open surgical procedures and analyzed for correlation with surgical training. Exposures: The multitask AI model was trained on the AI-ready video data set and then retrospectively applied to the prospectively collected video data set. Main Outcomes and Measures: Analysis of open surgical videos in near real-time, performance on AI-ready and prospectively collected videos, and quantification of surgeon skill. Results: Using the AI-ready data set, the study team developed a multitask AI model capable of real-time understanding of surgical behaviors-the building blocks of procedural flow and surgeon skill-across space and time. Through principal component analysis, a single compound skill feature was identified, composed of a linear combination of kinematic hand attributes. This feature was a significant discriminator between experienced surgeons and surgical trainees across 101 prospectively collected surgical videos of 14 operators. For each unit increase in the compound feature value, the odds of the operator being an experienced surgeon were 3.6 times higher (95% CI, 1.67-7.62; P = .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this observational study, the AVOS-trained model was applied to analyze prospectively collected open surgical videos and identify kinematic descriptors of surgical skill related to efficiency of hand motion. The ability to provide AI-deduced insights into surgical structure and skill is valuable in optimizing surgical skill acquisition and ultimately improving surgical care.

Comparing Rationale for Opioid Prescribing Decisions after Surgery with Subsequent Patient Consumption: A Survey of the Highest Quartile of Prescribers.

BACKGROUND: Opioid prescribing patterns, including those after surgery, have been implicated as a significant contributor to the US opioid crisis. A plethora of interventions-from nudges to reminders-have been deployed to improve prescribing behavior, but reasons for persistent outlier behavior are often unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Our institution employs multiple prescribing resources and a near real-time, feedback-based intervention to promote appropriate opioid prescribing. Since 2019, an automated system has emailed providers when a prescription exceeds the 75th percentile of typical opioid consumption for a given procedure-as defined by institutional data collection. Emails include population consumption metrics and an optional survey on rationale for prescribing. Responses were analyzed to understand why providers choose to prescribe atypically large discharge opioid prescriptions. We then compared provider prescriptions against patient consumption. RESULTS: During the study period, 10,672 eligible postsurgical patients were discharged; 2,013 prescriptions (29.4% of opioid prescriptions) exceeded our institutional guideline. Surveys were completed by outlier prescribers for 414 (20.6%) encounters. Among patients where both consumption data and prescribing rationale surveys were available, 35.2% did not consume any opioids after discharge and 21.5% consumed <50% of their prescription. Only 93 (39.9%) patients receiving outlier prescriptions were outlier consumers. Most common reasons for prescribing outlier amounts were attending preference (34%) and prescriber analysis of patient characteristics (34%). CONCLUSIONS: The top quartile of opioid prescriptions did not align with, and often far exceeded, patient postdischarge opioid consumption. Providers cite assessment of patient characteristics as a common driver of decision-making, but this did not align with patient usage for approximately 50% of patients.

Evaluating Capabilities of Large Language Models: Performance of GPT4 on Surgical Knowledge Assessments.

Background: Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to dramatically alter healthcare by enhancing how we diagnosis and treat disease. One promising AI model is ChatGPT, a large general-purpose language model trained by OpenAI. The chat interface has shown robust, human-level performance on several professional and academic benchmarks. We sought to probe its performance and stability over time on surgical case questions. Methods: We evaluated the performance of ChatGPT-4 on two surgical knowledge assessments: the Surgical Council on Resident Education (SCORE) and a second commonly used knowledge assessment, referred to as Data-B. Questions were entered in two formats: open-ended and multiple choice. ChatGPT output were assessed for accuracy and insights by surgeon evaluators. We categorized reasons for model errors and the stability of performance on repeat encounters. Results: A total of 167 SCORE and 112 Data-B questions were presented to the ChatGPT interface. ChatGPT correctly answered 71% and 68% of multiple-choice SCORE and Data-B questions, respectively. For both open-ended and multiple-choice questions, approximately two-thirds of ChatGPT responses contained non-obvious insights. Common reasons for inaccurate responses included: inaccurate information in a complex question (n=16, 36.4%); inaccurate information in fact-based question (n=11, 25.0%); and accurate information with circumstantial discrepancy (n=6, 13.6%). Upon repeat query, the answer selected by ChatGPT varied for 36.4% of inaccurate questions; the response accuracy changed for 6/16 questions. Conclusion: Consistent with prior findings, we demonstrate robust near or above human-level performance of ChatGPT within the surgical domain. Unique to this study, we demonstrate a substantial inconsistency in ChatGPT responses with repeat query. This finding warrants future consideration and presents an opportunity to further train these models to provide safe and consistent responses. Without mental and/or conceptual models, it is unclear whether language models such as ChatGPT would be able to safely assist clinicians in providing care.

How surgeons use risk calculators and non-clinical factors for informed consent and shared decision making: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The discussion of risks, benefits, and alternatives to surgery with patients is a defining component of informed consent. As shared-decision making has become central to surgeon-patient communication, risk calculators have emerged as a tool to aid communication and decision-making. To optimize informed consent, it is necessary to understand how surgeons assess and communicate risk, and the role of risk calculators in this process. METHODS: We conducted interviews with 13 surgeons from two institutions to understand how surgeons assess risk, the role of risk calculators in decision-making, and how surgeons approach risk communication during informed consent. We performed a qualitative analysis of interviews based on SRQR guidelines. RESULTS: Our analysis yielded insights regarding (a) the landscape and approach to obtaining surgical consent; (b) detailed perceptions regarding the value and design of assessing and communicating risk; and (c) practical considerations regarding the future of personalized risk communication in decision-making. Above all, we found that non-clinical factors such as health and risk literacy are changing how surgeons assess and communicate risk, which diverges from traditional risk calculators. CONCLUSION: Principally, we found that surgeons incorporate a range of clinical and non-clinical factors to risk stratify patients and determine how to optimally frame and discuss risk with individual patients. We observed that surgeons' perception of risk communication, and the importance of eliciting patient preferences to direct shared-decision making, did not consistently align with patient priorities. This study underscored criticisms of risk calculators and novel decision-aids - which must be addressed prior to greater adoption.

Artificial Intelligence-enabled Decision Support in Surgery: State-of-the-art and Future Directions.

OBJECTIVE: To summarize state-of-the-art artificial intelligence-enabled decision support in surgery and to quantify deficiencies in scientific rigor and reporting. BACKGROUND: To positively affect surgical care, decision-support models must exceed current reporting guideline requirements by performing external and real-time validation, enrolling adequate sample sizes, reporting model precision, assessing performance across vulnerable populations, and achieving clinical implementation; the degree to which published models meet these criteria is unknown. METHODS: Embase, PubMed, and MEDLINE databases were searched from their inception to September 21, 2022 for articles describing artificial intelligence-enabled decision support in surgery that uses preoperative or intraoperative data elements to predict complications within 90 days of surgery. Scientific rigor and reporting criteria were assessed and reported according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines. RESULTS: Sample size ranged from 163-2,882,526, with 8/36 articles (22.2%) featuring sample sizes of less than 2000; 7 of these 8 articles (87.5%) had below-average (<0.83) area under the receiver operating characteristic or accuracy. Overall, 29 articles (80.6%) performed internal validation only, 5 (13.8%) performed external validation, and 2 (5.6%) performed real-time validation. Twenty-three articles (63.9%) reported precision. No articles reported performance across sociodemographic categories. Thirteen articles (36.1%) presented a framework that could be used for clinical implementation; none assessed clinical implementation efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: Artificial intelligence-enabled decision support in surgery is limited by reliance on internal validation, small sample sizes that risk overfitting and sacrifice predictive performance, and failure to report confidence intervals, precision, equity analyses, and clinical implementation. Researchers should strive to improve scientific quality.

Informative missingness: What can we learn from patterns in missing laboratory data in the electronic health record?

BACKGROUND: In electronic health records, patterns of missing laboratory test results could capture patients' course of disease as well as ​​reflect clinician's concerns or worries for possible conditions. These patterns are often understudied and overlooked. This study aims to identify informative patterns of missingness among laboratory data collected across 15 healthcare system sites in three countries for COVID-19 inpatients. METHODS: We collected and analyzed demographic, diagnosis, and laboratory data for 69,939 patients with positive COVID-19 PCR tests across three countries from 1 January 2020 through 30 September 2021. We analyzed missing laboratory measurements across sites, missingness stratification by demographic variables, temporal trends of missingness, correlations between labs based on missingness indicators over time, and clustering of groups of labs based on their missingness/ordering pattern. RESULTS: With these analyses, we identified mapping issues faced in seven out of 15 sites. We also identified nuances in data collection and variable definition for the various sites. Temporal trend analyses may support the use of laboratory test result missingness patterns in identifying severe COVID-19 patients. Lastly, using missingness patterns, we determined relationships between various labs that reflect clinical behaviors. CONCLUSION: In this work, we use computational approaches to relate missingness patterns to hospital treatment capacity and highlight the heterogeneity of looking at COVID-19 over time and at multiple sites, where there might be different phases, policies, etc. Changes in missingness could suggest a change in a patient's condition, and patterns of missingness among laboratory measurements could potentially identify clinical outcomes. This allows sites to consider missing data as informative to analyses and help researchers identify which sites are better poised to study particular questions.

Quantifying the Prognostic Value of Preoperative Surgeon Intuition: Comparing Surgeon Intuition and Clinical Risk Prediction as Derived from the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Risk Calculator.

BACKGROUND: Surgical risk prediction models traditionally use patient attributes and measures of physiology to generate predictions about postoperative outcomes. However, the surgeon's assessment of the patient may be a valuable predictor, given the surgeon's ability to detect and incorporate factors that existing models cannot capture. We compare the predictive utility of surgeon intuition and a risk calculator derived from the American College of Surgeons (ACS) NSQIP. STUDY DESIGN: From January 10, 2021 to January 9, 2022, surgeons were surveyed immediately before performing surgery to assess their perception of a patient's risk of developing any postoperative complication. Clinical data were abstracted from ACS NSQIP. Both sources of data were independently used to build models to predict the likelihood of a patient experiencing any 30-day postoperative complication as defined by ACS NSQIP. RESULTS: Preoperative surgeon assessment was obtained for 216 patients. NSQIP data were available for 9,182 patients who underwent general surgery (January 1, 2017 to January 9, 2022). A binomial regression model trained on clinical data alone had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.85) in predicting any complication. A model trained on only preoperative surgeon intuition had an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.78). A model trained on surgeon intuition and a subset of clinical predictors had an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative surgeon intuition alone is an independent predictor of patient outcomes; however, a risk calculator derived from ACS NSQIP is a more robust predictor of postoperative complication. Combining intuition and clinical data did not strengthen prediction.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome after SARS-CoV-2 infection on young adult population: International observational federated study based on electronic health records through the 4CE consortium.

PURPOSE: In young adults (18 to 49 years old), investigation of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has been limited. We evaluated the risk factors and outcomes of ARDS following infection with SARS-CoV-2 in a young adult population. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted between January 1st, 2020 and February 28th, 2021 using patient-level electronic health records (EHR), across 241 United States hospitals and 43 European hospitals participating in the Consortium for Clinical Characterization of COVID-19 by EHR (4CE). To identify the risk factors associated with ARDS, we compared young patients with and without ARDS through a federated analysis. We further compared the outcomes between young and old patients with ARDS. RESULTS: Among the 75,377 hospitalized patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR, 1001 young adults presented with ARDS (7.8% of young hospitalized adults). Their mortality rate at 90 days was 16.2% and they presented with a similar complication rate for infection than older adults with ARDS. Peptic ulcer disease, paralysis, obesity, congestive heart failure, valvular disease, diabetes, chronic pulmonary disease and liver disease were associated with a higher risk of ARDS. We described a high prevalence of obesity (53%), hypertension (38%- although not significantly associated with ARDS), and diabetes (32%). CONCLUSION: Trough an innovative method, a large international cohort study of young adults developing ARDS after SARS-CoV-2 infection has been gather. It demonstrated the poor outcomes of this population and associated risk factor.

Long-term kidney function recovery and mortality after COVID-19-associated acute kidney injury: An international multi-centre observational cohort study.

Background: While acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication in COVID-19, data on post-AKI kidney function recovery and the clinical factors associated with poor kidney function recovery is lacking. Methods: A retrospective multi-centre observational cohort study comprising 12,891 hospitalized patients aged 18 years or older with a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by polymerase chain reaction from 1 January 2020 to 10 September 2020, and with at least one serum creatinine value 1-365 days prior to admission. Mortality and serum creatinine values were obtained up to 10 September 2021. Findings: Advanced age (HR 2.77, 95%CI 2.53-3.04, p < 0.0001), severe COVID-19 (HR 2.91, 95%CI 2.03-4.17, p < 0.0001), severe AKI (KDIGO stage 3: HR 4.22, 95%CI 3.55-5.00, p < 0.0001), and ischemic heart disease (HR 1.26, 95%CI 1.14-1.39, p < 0.0001) were associated with worse mortality outcomes. AKI severity (KDIGO stage 3: HR 0.41, 95%CI 0.37-0.46, p < 0.0001) was associated with worse kidney function recovery, whereas remdesivir use (HR 1.34, 95%CI 1.17-1.54, p < 0.0001) was associated with better kidney function recovery. In a subset of patients without chronic kidney disease, advanced age (HR 1.38, 95%CI 1.20-1.58, p < 0.0001), male sex (HR 1.67, 95%CI 1.45-1.93, p < 0.0001), severe AKI (KDIGO stage 3: HR 11.68, 95%CI 9.80-13.91, p < 0.0001), and hypertension (HR 1.22, 95%CI 1.10-1.36, p = 0.0002) were associated with post-AKI kidney function impairment. Furthermore, patients with COVID-19-associated AKI had significant and persistent elevations of baseline serum creatinine 125% or more at 180 days (RR 1.49, 95%CI 1.32-1.67) and 365 days (RR 1.54, 95%CI 1.21-1.96) compared to COVID-19 patients with no AKI. Interpretation: COVID-19-associated AKI was associated with higher mortality, and severe COVID-19-associated AKI was associated with worse long-term post-AKI kidney function recovery. Funding: Authors are supported by various funders, with full details stated in the acknowledgement section.

Appraising the Quality of Development and Reporting in Surgical Prediction Models.

This cross-sectional study uses the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis reporting guideline to assess 120 published studies about surgical prediction models.

Trends in Medical Management of Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis: A Nationwide Retrospective Analysis.

BACKGROUND: With an increasing number of therapeutic options available for the management of ulcerative colitis (UC), the variability in treatment and prescribing patterns is not well known. While recent guidelines have provided updates on how these therapeutic options should be used, patterns of long-term use of these drugs over the past 2 decades remain unclear. METHODS: We analyzed a retrospective, nationwide cohort of more than 1.7 million prescriptions for trends in prescribing behaviors and to evaluate practices suggested in guidelines relating to ordering biologics, step-up therapy, and combination therapy. The primary outcome was 30-day steroid-free remission and secondary outcomes included hospitalization, cost, and additional steroid usage. A pipeline was created to identify cohorts of patients under active UC medical management grouped by prescribing strategies to evaluate comparative outcomes between strategies. Cox proportional hazards and multivariate regression models were utilized to assess postexposure outcomes and adjust for confounders. RESULTS: Among 6 major drug categories, we noted major baseline differences in patient characteristics at first exposure corresponding to disease activity. We noted earlier use of biologics in patient trajectories (762 days earlier relative to UC diagnosis, 2018 vs 2008; P < .001) and greater overall use of biologics over time (2.53× more in 2018 vs 2008; P < .00001) . Among biologic-naive patients, adalimumab was associated with slightly lower rates of remission compared with infliximab or vedolizumab (odds ratio, 0.92; P < .005). Comparisons of patients with early biologic initiation to patients who transitioned to biologics from 5-aminosalicylic acid suggest lower steroid consumption for early biologic initiation (-761 mg prednisone; P < .001). Combination thiopurine-biologic therapy was associated with higher odds of remission compared with biologic monotherapy (odds ratio, 1.36; P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: As biologic drugs have become increasingly available for UC management, they have increasingly been used at earlier stages of disease management. Large-scale analyses of prescribing behaviors provide evidence supporting early use of biologics compared with step-up therapy and use of thiopurine and biologic combination therapy.

Population-scale analysis reveals patterns in prescribing trends for ulcerative colitis management. Findings include (1) earlier use of biologics in patient trajectories, (2) associations of step-up therapy with higher corticosteroid exposure, and (3) association of combination therapy with positive patient outcomes.